How much has the political landscape changed in Canada?

Absolutely no one predicted this election result when the campaign began 5 weeks ago. Even at the half way point it wasn't apparent.

Has the political landscape changed permanently or was this an anomaly? Has the country shifted to the right? Will the Liberals and Bloc survive? After 5 years of no shift in voter preference, why did it suddenly change?

Conservatives

I've said repeatedly that the Conservatives deserved to get re-elected based solely on their stewardship of the economy over the past 3 years. What Western economy did nearly as well as Canada? Granted we were perhaps better prepared than most but other government could easily have made quite a number of blunders. Stephen Harper had three goals he wanted to achieve in his political goal - become Prime Minister, win a majority and destroy the Liberal party. With this election it is mission accomplished.

This election victory was part great strategy and part good luck. His focus was hammering Michael Ignatieff and characterizing him as weak and an opportunist. As was the case with Stephane Dion, Harper released attack ads immediately after Ignatieff became Liberal leader. By doing so he created an image of Ignatieff in the minds of the voters before the Liberals could do so and made him unelectable. But Harper's theme of a coalition of losers trying to take control of the government did not resonate with the public. The Conservative were on their way to another minority government when the sudden surge by NDP weakened the Liberals in Ontario ridings and elected more Conservatives by splitting the vote,

For the 60% of the country that fears a Conservative majority government will pull out some hidden agenda, I don't see that happening. There won't be a ban on abortions, two tiered health care or a return of capital punishment. These do not reflect Canadian society and it would be political suicide to move in these direction. Conservatives in Ottawa will only be able to nibble around the edges of social conservatism.

Barring a major political scandal, the Conservatives may be able to control Parliament for many years to come with a divided left.

NDP

Will the NDP remain a major player in Ottawa? Too early to tell. Remember that in 1990 the Ontario NDP under Bob Rae took Queens Park by storm and totally blew it. They had in caucus some of the most inappropriate MPPs you would ever want to meet. Some must have made the Premier cringe. After five shaky years the NDP returned to traditional levels. So how many of these 102 NDP MPPs will make Jack Layton cringe? Well his caucus includes 4 McGill students and a 19 year old. Then there is Ruth Ellen Brosseau who took a trip to Vegas during the election and doesn't speak very good French. Oh yes and she was elected in Quebec.

The sudden attraction to Jack Layton has brought a lot of questionable characters to Ottawa. Why after 4 elections did he suddenly become so appealing? It was mostly because the Liberals and Bloc had become so unappealing. The NDP support may just be a protest vote. But to their credit, the NDP along with the Conservatives had the most thought out policy platform so it also speaks to why they will dominate the next Parliament. Quebeckers chose the NDP because it was the party that best represented Quebec nationalism. For Jack Layton it all began with the Leaders Debate but he will now have to continue to shine in Parliament.

Liberals

A lot of things worked against the Liberals in this election. As I mentioned they allowed the Conservatives to frame their leader in a very negative light. Past scandals and arrogance are still on the minds of voters. The party is still despised in Quebec because of Meech Lake. More and more the Liberals brand of federalism has little appeal not just in Quebec but in the West. A national party needs more than Ontario and the Maritime to win an election. But most of all the union of the old Progressive Conservative and Alliance parties badly damaged the Liberals. Now it is the left that is divided.

Will or can the Liberals bounce back? Well if they do it will take a very long time. If the NDP screw up that will help. But Liberals need to think hard about jump starting their return by taking a page from Harper's book and consider a merger with the NDP. Bob Rae has already raised the idea.

Bloc Quebecois

Perhaps Quebeckers have finally had enough of sovereignty talk and therefore have no need for a separatist party. As the NDP fortunes in Quebec rose, the Bloc fell back even more to talking about sovereignty which I think hastened their fall. Maybe 20 years as a single issue party is just too long. Certainly they can bounce back by setting aside sovereignty and doing a better job representing Quebec. But will the old guard admit defeat?

Green

To add to this historic Parliament is the first Green party representative actually elected. Elizabeth May took a calculated risk and it paid off. She concentrated party resources on one riding, her own, to win a seat she believed was winnable. I don't doubt her focus on one riding ruffled a lot of feathers but her victory makes it worth while. Some hope that May will bring some civility to Parliament. We can only hope.